Archie's Double Digest 139 (January 2003) by Sid Jacobson, Richard H. Goldwater, Victor Gorelick, Nelson

By Sid Jacobson, Richard H. Goldwater, Victor Gorelick, Nelson Ribiero

Archie's Double Digest #139 - January 2003

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For example, if the mission is ‘‘to maximise return on investments’’ then an objective might be to achieve an improvement in profitability of x points next year. In order to translate this in operational terms the internal situation must be analysed, including the organisational capabilities and limitations. Then the attention moves to the contextual and transactional environments. Out of this analysis feasible objectives are formulated. Strategies are designed to achieve the objectives. Normally there are a number of options to be considered and the rationalist strategist needs to select the most effective.

Demand for new tanker capacity (Source: BP Statistical Review) Introduction to Scenario-based Planning 15 into the 1980s. Even though demand flattened in 1973 it was only in 1977 that new building orders started to drop off. The effect on the industry was dramatic. Huge overcapacity resulted in large numbers of tankers laid up in various anchorages around the world, and freight rates stayed at rock bottom for many years. The oil crisis example is one of the clearest illustrations of how long it can take for organisations to react to change in the environment.

This is where predict-andcontrol planning, based on the rationalist paradigm, works well. The Rationalist Approach to Strategy The rationalist perspective starts with the concept that there is one right answer and the strategic task is to find it, or get as close as possible to it. For the rationalist, the starting perspective of the strategist him/herself is not important. If there is only one right answer, then anyone, given the right resources, will ultimately find it. It may be the chief executive, but (s)he may legitimately delegate this job to an intelligent subordinate if this brings more rational thinking power to bear.

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